Notes from the floor
Honest, unfiltered thinking on iGaming - platform selection, CRM, compliance, African markets, offline-to-online, governance. From someone who's been in your chair.
Prediction Markets Are Not New. They Are Better Dressed.
France's regulator already called it illegal gambling. Ten more European countries agree, and so does the EU's securities regulator. Kalshi's CEO is headlining a 2,500-person summit anyway.
The UKGC set a June 30 deadline.
The UKGC gave operators eight months to build Phase 2 deposit-limit standards, then pushed the deadline to September 30. The extension is a pattern, not news.
India didn't ban gambling.
India's PROG Act bans online money games with up to five years in prison — yet fantasy sports survives on the skill-versus-chance test. That line is the market now.
Entain paid £750m for STS Poland in June 2023.
Entain paid £750m for STS Poland in 2023. Three years later it is exploring selling Entain CEE back to EMMA Capital. The markets didn't change. The math did.
EGBA members committed to alignment on the day the standard was published.
EN 18144 gives Europe its first common standard for behavioural markers of harm — nine markers, cross-border, voluntary. Who wrote it matters more than what it says.
Uganda Gave Licensed Operators 13 Days. The Unlicensed Market Had 13 Days Too.
Uganda's Gaming Act Amendment raises GGR tax from 20% to 30% with 13 days' notice. Every time a jurisdiction raises compliance costs for licensed operators without touching unlicensed ones, the unlicensed market gains a structural advantage.
Your platform is licensed in Malta.
Your players sue you where they live.
The tournament is live.
The vendor already has the case study.
The fine is not a technology failure.
The technology worked exactly as the operator intended it to.
The AI AML vendor gets the sale.
The PML holder gets the enforcement action.
Tanzania just introduced a 5% duty on betting stakes.
Zambia tried 10%. You know how that ended.
Lowering the tax rate is the easy part.
Writing the law correctly is the governance test.
Ireland got its gambling regulator.
Betfred left. The unlicensed operators didn't.
Egypt is about to criminalize online gambling.
It has not licensed it first.
Britain built a law to protect consumers from illegal content.
It protected illegal gambling operators from detection instead.
Austria's cooling-off debate is framed as player protection.
The people lobbying for it are Casinos Austria and Novomatic.
Advertising drives players to licensed platforms.
Banning it helps the platforms that already have them.
A 1 euro stake limit does not remove demand.
It removes the player willing to pay more.
22 states.
Nigeria's Universal Reciprocity Certificate offers one licence across 22 states at 11% GGR. Fifteen states stay outside it, and the federal regulator is limited to Abuja.
93% of Uganda's Gambling Happens Online. The Licence Was Written for the Other 7%.
The numbers come from the regulator itself. 93% online, 7% physical. Uganda has 63 licensed companies across 2,078 premises. The premises are the supervisory model. The activity is somewhere else.
Mexico Has 5,336 Betting Permits. No One Knows Which Ones Still Operate.
Mexico has 5,336 betting permits and no public list of which still operate. A regulator that can't publish its own licensees has a FATF problem before a regulatory one.
iGaming CRM: What Most Operators Are Getting Wrong
Most iGaming operators have a CRM system. Fewer have a retention strategy. These are not the same thing, and the difference is not subtle.
You Cannot License the Relationship. But You Can Ban the Person Who Built It.
Kenya's BCLB has banned celebrities and influencers from gambling advertising. The licensed operators lose their acquisition channels. The unlicensed market loses nothing.
Nigeria Doesn't Have a Gambling Regulator. It Has 36 of Them.
Nigeria's Supreme Court ruled gaming falls under state authority. The result: 36 state regulators, no guaranteed cross-state licence recognition, and a compliance architecture most platforms cannot handle.
Brazil's Sigap: When Compliance Infrastructure Becomes Political Exclusion
There is a name for state-built compliance infrastructure that turns out to be reusable for political exclusion. The name is dual-use. Brazil's Sigap Barred Persons Module is the stress test.
The Unlicensed Market Has a Licensing Body. It's Called Anjouan.
Anjouan Gaming clarified its licences are not universal authorisations to operate globally. The operators using them to serve UK and Australian players may have missed that memo.
Africa Is Not Taxing Gambling. It's Taxing the Operators Who Stayed.
Senegal's licensed betting operators say the combined tax and regulatory burden can reach 128% of revenue. When the licensed market becomes uncompetitive, the tax vehicle drives off the road.
The Most Expensive CRM Strategy Is the One Built on a Loophole
A white paper is circulating that positions prize draws as a cross-sell acquisition channel for UK gambling operators. The UKGC closes gaps like this. It always has.
What Offline Casinos Get Wrong When They Go Online
Physical casino operators enter digital with a specific confidence: they know their players. That confidence is the first thing online corrects.
A Province Cannot License What the National Government Hasn't Decided. But It Can Tax It.
KwaZulu-Natal is building a provincial gambling tax framework while South Africa's national online framework remains in consultation. Nine provinces, nine frameworks, before parliament decides.
New Zealand's 15-License Cap: A Market or a Guest List?
New Zealand is issuing 15 online casino licenses for a country of 5 million people. This is channelization, not liberalization. The closed-door model is spreading globally.
When Your Regulator Lobbies Against Your Finance Bill: Kenya's Architecture Problem
Kenya's GRA is opposing the Finance Bill 2026. When the licensing agency and the revenue ministry measure success differently, operators don't face one government — they face two.
Greece Counted 799,000 Citizens in the Black Market. The Bill Answers with Takedown Powers.
The EEEP gets authority to identify illegal gambling content and order its immediate removal. The black market takes €1.6–2bn from the Greek economy. Nearly one in ten Greeks gambled on an unlicensed site at least once. The bill answers the supply. Not the demand.
iGaming Platform Selection: What Vendors Won't Tell You
The RFP process was designed by vendors. The evaluation framework that gets you to the right platform is the one you build before the vendor shows you anything.
Zambia Taxes Stakes: When BetLion, Betway and betPawa Exit Together
Zambia introduced a 10% excise duty on betting stakes. Three of Africa's largest operators found out the difference between GGR tax and stake tax the hard way.
The Cheapest Way to Build a Regulator Is to Buy One. Burundi Did.
Burundi's lottery operator becomes the national gambling regulator on June 30 — its entire supervisory stack running on one vendor's platform. A single point of failure.
Saturday Brazil Suspended Seven Betting Operators. Sunday Five of Them Were Back Online.
The SPA suspended operators for missing the 90-day cybersecurity deadline. Within 24 hours, five had court injunctions. The regulator's clock is 90 days. The court's clock is one weekend. Most operators are not pricing both.
Operators Evaluating Ghana Read the Licence Framework. The Regulator Was Reading the Building Plans.
Ghana's Gaming Commission opened four regional offices this year. The regulator's pitch is innovation in a digital world. Its calendar was construction. Operators who model an Accra-only compliance relationship are already behind.
Operators Chase the June 30 Deadline. The State Has Already Moved on to the Player.
South Africa's NGB has forfeited 2.3 million rand of player winnings from unlicensed sites in eight weeks — three times the full prior year. Section 16 channelization moves enforcement onto the player and changes which licence they choose next.
Every Gambling Licence Issued in Gabon Before 2026 Is Dead on July 8
Every gambling licence issued in Gabon before 2026 dies on July 8. The GDJ ran two presidential ordinances with no grandfathering. The real filter closed on March 2.
There Is a Name for State-Built Compliance Infrastructure That Turns Out to Be Reusable for Political Exclusion.
Brazil's Sigap CPF registry enabled the regulated market in January 2025. By May 2026, the same infrastructure was used to remove debt-relief beneficiaries from it — by ordinance, not by parliament.
Austria Isn't Opening Its Market. It's Sending You a Bill.
Austria's draft online gambling law opens casino licensing past the Win2day monopoly — but requires every applicant to settle outstanding Austrian court judgments and pay retroactive tax. The deregulation reading is wrong.
Curaçao Always Sold Cheap Licences. It's Selling Something Else Now.
Curaçao always sold cheap licences. The Q1 2026 bulletin from the CGA says it is selling something else now. The legacy book is thirty-seven times larger than the new regime. The direction is set anyway.
Tribal Casinos, Lotteries, Horse Racing. All Opposing Prediction Markets. Notice What They Share.
Ten Tribal associations, state lottery operators, and horse racing tracks are all opposing prediction markets in US courts. The common factor: physical infrastructure that cannot be moved to a browser.
Brazil Licensed Sports Betting in 2024. Eighteen Months Later the President Is Considering Shutdown.
Brazil handed operators a licence in late 2024, collected the compliance investment, then floated a full shutdown. The compliance cost was not a market entry cost. It was a stranded asset.
The CRM Gap Is a Sequencing Problem
Industry average Day-30 player retention in iGaming is 15-25%. Best-in-class sits at 30-40%. That gap is not a budget problem. Not a bonus problem. It is a sequencing problem.
Norway: A Different Theory of Problem Gambling
Norway published a four-year problem gambling action plan. No changes to legal access. No new betting limits. No advertising bans. That is a specific policy philosophy.
Prediction Market or Sportsbook?
Eilers & Krejcik say 69% of US prediction market volume originates in the states where sports betting is illegal. Two questions before anyone uses that number to argue anything.
AI Didn't Close the Compliance Gap. It Widened It From the Other Side.
Fraud teams iterate in days. The compliance function reviewing them operates on a quarterly or annual cycle. Running annual AML reviews against opponents who ship updates every week is not a compliance strategy. It is a lag report.
UK RGD Doubles. The Tax Picks Winners.
April 1. The UK doubled its Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40%. Flutter's UK CEO said it on the record: 'We'll take share from those who can't absorb it.' Read that sentence again.
AI Made Everyone a Better Writer
AI can polish language. It cannot manufacture experience. The writing has never been easier to fake. The conversation hasn't.
The Philippines Crossed the Line. The App Didn't Win. The Casino Lost.
2025 was the first year online GGR exceeded land-based revenue in Philippines history. Most operators will read that as a technology story. It isn't.
The Licensed Product Doesn't Win by Default
1xBet grew 87% year-on-year in Nigeria. Licensed operators are available. The players aren't confused. They're choosing.
You Don't Lose the Platform Decision When You Sign. You Lose It Six Weeks Before.
The vendor shows up with a polished deck. Impressive demo. A couple of operator names you recognize. The sales process is smooth because they have done it a thousand times and you have not.
The Africa Tax Ceiling
South Africa proposed a 20% national online gambling tax. 62% of the country's digital gambling market is already offshore. Before the proposal.
Seven Markets, Seven Directions. The Balkan Gaming Federation.
Seven Balkan countries signed a Memorandum of Cooperation. The agenda: fight illegal gambling, align best practices. Each is also running its own regulatory experiment in a different direction.
The Infrastructure Gap
Every iGaming layoff story follows the same pattern. A decision made 12-18 months earlier when the numbers looked good.
Ghana Removed the Betting Tax. The Compliance Framework Stayed.
Ghana removed the 10% betting tax. The press covered what was removed. Nobody wrote much about what stayed.
Optimove Had a Page Explaining Why They're Better Than Smartico. Now They Own Smartico.
The best due diligence is competing against someone for three years. Smartico is a Kyborg partner. Optimove just bought them - and structured the deal so they keep running independently.
If You Need Protecting to Compete, the Product Is the Problem.
Entain asked regulators for clearer direction in the black market fight. The framing is recognisable. It is also backwards. The black market didn't call a press conference. It just offered better odds.
Romania Consolidation: CEE's First Domino
Super Technologies acquires MaxBet Romania. The headline reads like a single transaction. It isn't. It's a phase change.
Sweden's Credit Card Ban Is a Compliance Event. It's Also a Product Event.
Most operators treated the Swedish credit card ban as a compliance milestone. What it actually is: a backend infrastructure test, and a CRM model drift event most won't notice until Q3.
The Channelization Paradox
Germany has 11 illegal operators for every licensed one. Channelization is a product design problem at the regulatory level - not a policing problem.
Nigeria Finally Has an Answer
The Central Gaming Bill is dead. Nigeria has clarity. The framework it left behind has 37 parts.
The Concession Trilogy
OPAP builds. Danske Spil optimizes. The third model extracts. Same structural advantage, three outcomes.
Turkey's War on Gambling Will Not Protect a Single Vulnerable Player
Count the tools of coercion. Count the tools of treatment. The ratio tells you everything about whose problem this is actually designed to solve.
Germany: 77% or 50%? The Number Nobody Disputes Is 17%.
Two numbers are circulating about Germany's online gambling market. The regulator says 77% channelization. The operators' association and the University of Leipzig say 50%. The black market grew 17% anyway.
I Never Really Left Writing
Writing was my original vocation. iGaming was the accident - a well-paying, fascinating, 30-year accident.
The First Operator Has Entered Finland. Who's Next?
Finland will have 40 to 50 licensed operators. The number who were actually ready will be smaller. We'll find out in 2028.
Design Moves Channelization. Enforcement Moves Headlines.
There is one question underneath the Japan gambling headline. Are they designing a licensed market more convenient than the illegal alternative, or a licensing system that satisfies regulators while the market stays broken?
Kenya's 99
99 operators got licensed in Kenya. A license is the starting gun. Most are still tying their shoes.
The Enforcement Export
Curacao tightened. Tobique opened. The enforcement apparatus is working. The deterrence architecture is not built.