Notes from the floor
Honest, unfiltered thinking on iGaming - platform selection, CRM, compliance, African markets, offline-to-online, governance. From someone who's been in your chair.
Curaçao Always Sold Cheap Licences. It's Selling Something Else Now.
Curaçao always sold cheap licences. The Q1 2026 bulletin from the CGA says it is selling something else now. The legacy book is thirty-seven times larger than the new regime. The direction is set anyway.
Tribal Casinos, Lotteries, Horse Racing. All Opposing Prediction Markets. Notice What They Share.
Ten Tribal associations, state lottery operators, and horse racing tracks are all opposing prediction markets in US courts. The common factor: physical infrastructure that cannot be moved to a browser.
Brazil Licensed Sports Betting in 2024. Eighteen Months Later the President Is Considering Shutdown.
Brazil handed operators a licence in late 2024, collected the compliance investment, then floated a full shutdown. The compliance cost was not a market entry cost. It was a stranded asset.
Prediction Market or Sportsbook?
Eilers & Krejcik say 69% of US prediction market volume originates in the states where sports betting is illegal. Two questions before anyone uses that number to argue anything.
AI Didn't Close the Compliance Gap. It Widened It From the Other Side.
Fraud teams iterate in days. The compliance function reviewing them operates on a quarterly or annual cycle. Running annual AML reviews against opponents who ship updates every week is not a compliance strategy. It is a lag report.
The Africa Tax Ceiling
South Africa proposed a 20% national online gambling tax. 62% of the country's digital gambling market is already offshore. Before the proposal.
Ghana Removed the Betting Tax. The Compliance Framework Stayed.
Ghana removed the 10% betting tax. The press covered what was removed. Nobody wrote much about what stayed.
Sweden's Credit Card Ban Is a Compliance Event. It's Also a Product Event.
Most operators treated the Swedish credit card ban as a compliance milestone. What it actually is: a backend infrastructure test, and a CRM model drift event most won't notice until Q3.
The Channelization Paradox
Germany has 11 illegal operators for every licensed one. Channelization is a product design problem at the regulatory level - not a policing problem.
Nigeria Finally Has an Answer
The Central Gaming Bill is dead. Nigeria has clarity. The framework it left behind has 37 parts.
Turkey's War on Gambling Will Not Protect a Single Vulnerable Player
Count the tools of coercion. Count the tools of treatment. The ratio tells you everything about whose problem this is actually designed to solve.
Germany: 77% or 50%? The Number Nobody Disputes Is 17%.
Two numbers are circulating about Germany's online gambling market. The regulator says 77% channelization. The operators' association and the University of Leipzig say 50%. The black market grew 17% anyway.
Design Moves Channelization. Enforcement Moves Headlines.
There is one question underneath the Japan gambling headline. Are they designing a licensed market more convenient than the illegal alternative, or a licensing system that satisfies regulators while the market stays broken?
The Enforcement Export
Curacao tightened. Tobique opened. The enforcement apparatus is working. The deterrence architecture is not built.